December 7, 2012

Assessing Michael Young's Value

Michael Young has been mentioned in trade rumors in connection with the Phillies lately. It looks like there's a deal in place, and because Young has a no-trade clause in his contract the Rangers and the Phillies are just waiting for his approval. Yesterday, Drake Campbell took a look at why Michael Young might not be as bad as he is perceived around baseball circles. I'm going to follow up on that today.

Drake's one sentiment particularly caught my eye regarding positional adjustments:
In 2012, Young played 111 of his 156 games as either a first baseman or a designated hitter.  These positions come with a hefty negative positional adjustment, as more is expected in terms of offensive output.
For those who might not know, positional adjustments are used in FanGraphs WAR calculations to compare players across positions. The adjustments basically boil down to how much more difficult it is to play X position as compared to Y position. For more information, you can read this article from Fangraphs. But obviously it takes a lot more defensive talent to play shortstop than designated hitter. In fact it takes no defensive talent to play designated hitter.

The issue with Michael Young is that his positional adjustment is largely terrible from 2012 because he played "easier" positions, like first base (-12.5 positional adjustment) and designated hitter (-17.5), which gave him a total -10.1 positional adjustment for 2012, and -17.8 for positional adjustment plus UZR. Now we assume Michael Young is better at third base than the average DH, but not necessarily good. Conveniently, another former third baseman moved back to the position last year, who could serve as a comp for Young.

Miguel Cabrera moved back to third last season after four seasons of being the Tigers' primary first baseman. He was the worst-fielding third baseman in baseball last year (ignore Jordan Pacheco, he only played 600 innings as a 3B), posting a UZR of -10.0. Now I know Young is several years older than Cabrera, but he also played the position more recently, and Cabrera is a big, big fella'. I think this is a fair assessment of Young's defensive value.

Add that to a positional adjustment for third base of +2.5 and you get a total of -7.5, which is terrible. However, it's almost a full win better than he was credited for last season. This still gives him a negative overall value, but we're also assuming he'll have a better season in 2013 than he did in 2012 at the plate as well.

To quickly sum up why this might be the case: Young's BABIP was 35 points below his career average, and he was an above average hitter as recently as 2011 (.369 wOBA, 126 wRC+). For another look into Young's chances of being a good hitter again, see Dave Cameron's post over at FanGraphs.  As he wrote:
Interestingly, of the 19 players I identified in that ESPN piece who had negative WAR seasons between 34 and 36 and then played another season, their average WAR in the follow-up year was +1 WAR, and a good chunk of the guys in the sample were above average players in their rebound season.
Add in +1.0 win for his positional adjustment, and you get a player who has a good chance to be an average third baseman. Of course, his skills could continue to erode, but at ~$6 dollars and with little prospect loss, that seems like a potential bargain in this barren third base market.

With such little committed, the Phillies could just dump him and insert in-house options at the hot corner (Kevin Fransden/Freddy Galvis), and they're back where they started. In my opinion, Young's a risk worth taking.


Anonymous said...

Hurrah! Finally I got a blog from where I knoww how to genuiely get valuable facts regarding my study and knowledge.

Also visit my website - หนังโป๊

Anonymous said...

Excellent blog here! Also your site loads up fast!

What web host are you using? Can I get your affiliate link to your host?
I wish my web site loaded up as fast as yours lol

Also visit my web blog: garcinia tablets

Anonymous said...

Someone necessarily help to make significantly articles I'd state.
This is the first time I frequented your web page and so far?
I surprised with the research you made to make this actual publish extraordinary.
Fantastic task!

my web page; the elevation group review,,

Anonymous said...

Mai mult decât atât , meta tag-uri și tag-uri de nume
pe care le utilizați trebuie să conțină cuvinte
cheie . Aceste instrumente nu promit dimensiuni ca societăți corecte SEO
ca de renume va da .

Review my web-site :: optimizare site seo tutorial

Anonymous said...

It's perfect time to make some plans for the future and it
is time to be happy. I've read this post and if I could I wish to suggest you
few interesting things or tips. Perhaps you could write next articles referring to this article.
I wish to read more things about it!

Here is my website - sbo

co wendy said...

The christian louboutin remise 50% Russian Foreign Ministry christian louboutin shoes said the annual report in 2014 on the 27th diplomatic released the following Discount LV Handbags year Foreign Policy, which the European goodwill signals: Despite Air Jordan 11 Gamma Blue Russia's Cheap Louis Vuitton Handbags relations ugg boots situation is complicated, but the Cheap LV Handbags relationship with the EU "will become the next few years, the objective One of the priorities of Russian foreign policy. "The report notes that although the January 2014 Russian-European summit in Brussels, the European Union cheap christian louboutin expressed its Discount Louis Vuitton willingness to continue an active dialogue, avoid intensifying the conflict, but Christian Louboutin Daffodile since then the relationship between Russia and Europe is still caught in a deep turmoil. uggs on sale The EU suspended in most areas of bilateral cooperation, Russia discount christian louboutin many companies, politicians and industry to implement unilateral economic Christian Louboutin Bois Dore sanctions; accordingly, Russia also for EU member states to implement a one-year agricultural product restrictions, and sets out specific "ban list."Right now, the Russian-European trade volume continues to cut ugg against the trade and energy sector is deepening. However, the interaction between Russia and the European Union under the "Border Cooperation Programme" framework continues, most ugg pas cher of the project border wholesale jordan shoes cooperation program has been extended christian louboutin until the end of 2015, while the two sides also agreed to further future cooperation discount nike jordans projects in 2020. cheap jordans Russo mutually Bags Louis Vuitton beneficial cooperation in the fields of uggs outlet science, technology and innovation continues, in ugg australia 2014 successfully ugg soldes held the "E Ouke cheap nike jordan shoes school year."

Meiqing Xu said...

sac longchamp
oakley sunglasses wholesale
cheap jerseys
ugg boots
rolex replica watches
sac longchamp pliage
kevin durant shoes
mizuno running shoes
michael kors outlet online
louis vuitton
cheap ray ban sunglasses
canada goose jackets
juicy couture
nike free run
michael kors
air max 90
coach factory outlet
louboutin pas cher
toms shoes
nike air force 1
cheap uggs boots
supra shoes
cheap oakleys
ugg boots outlet
abercrombie and fitch
louis vuitton borse
instyler curling iron
jordan pas cher

Hua Cai said...

kobe shoes
michael kors outlet
nike roshe run
michael kors wholesale
nike roshe
basketball shoes,basketball sneakers,lebron james shoes,sports shoes,kobe bryant shoes,kobe sneakers,nike basketball shoes,running shoes,mens sport shoes,nike shoes
rolex uk
beats by dre
mulberry uk
nba jerseys
nike air max
louis vuitton outlet store
michael kors outlet online
michael kors factory outlet
pandora outlet
adidas outlet store
air max 2015
true religion outlet
true religion jeans
ralph lauren
swarovski crystal
michael kors handbags
coach outlet store
michael kors handbags clearance
lebron james shoes
michael kors clearance
mcm outlet
cheap nfl jerseys
hermes birkin bag
thomas sabo outlet
pandora outlet
cheap nfl jerseys
michael kors outlet
ralph lauren,polo ralph lauren,ralph lauren outlet,ralph lauren italia,ralph lauren sito ufficiale
michael kors bags